Overview

 This is a bottom-up vending machine financial model that includes seasonality assumptions and very clean assumptions for adding more vending machines over time. All relevant assumptions for revenues and variable / fixed costs have been accounted for in some way to provide the best 5-year monthly and annual financial forecast possible. The user will know their minimum equity requirement (initial investment) based on startup costs, inventory flows, and operational burn if existent.
Final output reports include:

  • Detailed 5-year monthly and annual Profit / Loss (EBITDA, EBT, Net Income) and Cash Flow
  • Annual contribution / distribution summary and DCF Analysis
  • Annual executive summary (high level financial projections)

The template starts off with vending machine deployment. The user defines the number of vending machines deployed per month and by type (up to 3 types). Additionally, cost per unit and deployment costs are defined for each type. Deployment will vary based on each individual month and the size of the rollout. This will be the main driver of initial investment required as well as when revenues begin.
Depreciation expense is automatically calculated based on the count deployed (when they are deployed and how many) and total cost per machine as well as a defined useful life.
For revenues, the model allows the user to configure up to 3 vending machine configurations that vary by:

  • Start date
  • Refill rate
  • Sizing (number of slots)
  • Pricing
  • Wastage
  • Cost of Goods Sold

The above assumptions can be adjusted in each of the 5 years independently, aside from the start date. There is a helper tab to assist in the high level weighted average inputs.
Seasonality is accounted for based on a schedule where the user defines the percentage of max possible capacity that is achieved per month by vending machine type and per year. Note, max capacity in a given month is based on the (total refills per month x total slots). That number is applied to a waste percentage in order to come to actual sales per month per vending machine.
There are expense assumptions related to the number of refills per vending machine type as well as fixed operating costs (plenty of slots) as well as other costs that can be accounted for as a direct percentage of revenues (usually used as a catch all for any costs that were not able to be accounted for elsewhere).
Plenty of overview visualizations for all key performance indicators / revenues / sales volumes by type.
The contribution / distribution summary includes a DCF Analysis, IRR, Equity Multiple, and visual per the entire project and the investor pool / operators.

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